Earthquake Scenarios
The National Earthquake Scenario Catalogue, presents the probable shaking, damage, loss and consequences from hypothetical earthquakes that could impact Canadians.
It considers only damage to buildings, and their inhabitants, from earthquake shaking, and therefore does not include damage to critical infrastructure or vehicles. Losses from secondary hazards, such as aftershocks, liquefaction, landslides, or fire following are also not currently included.
The information is provided at the approximate scale of Census dissemination areas, and is intended to support planning and emergency management activities in earthquake prone regions.
This project is run by the Geological Survey of Canada’s Public Safety Geoscience Program. For inquiries related to the National Earthquake Scenario Catalogue, please contact Tiegan E. Hobbs at tiegan.hobbs@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca.
All products are released under the Open Government Licence - Canada.
Datasets
Distribution contact
-
Organization name:
Government of Canada;Natural Resources Canada;Lands and Minerals Sector, Geological Survey of Canada -
Email:
GSC.info.CGC@NRCan.gc.ca
 Magnitude less than 6.0 |
 Magnitude 6.0 to 7.9 |
 Magnitude 8.0 or greater |
M9.0 Cascadia Full Rupture Subduction Earthquake (BC)
Full rupture of the Cascadia interface fault, the fault defining the boundary between the North American and Pacific Ocean plates. This magnitude 9.0 event, often referred to as ‘The Big One’, affects most communities in southwestern British Columbia.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M9.0 Cascadia Full Rupture Subduction Earthquake (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M9.0 Cascadia Full Rupture Subduction Earthquake (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M9.0 Cascadia Full Rupture Subduction Earthquake (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M9.0 Cascadia Full Rupture Subduction Earthquake (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M7.3 Leech River Fault (BC)
Full rupture of the Leech River Fault, a fault that cuts southern Vancouver Island and extends beneath Greater Victoria. Based on current science, this magnitude 7.3 earthquake scenario represents the strongest ground shaking event that could strike the region, and is one of Greater Victoria’s most severe events.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M7.3 Leech River Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.3 Leech River Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.3 Leech River Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.3 Leech River Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M7.1 Sidney (BC)
In 2015, a magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred 60 km beneath Sidney, BC. This scenario visualizes the effects of that event if it had a magnitude of 7.1.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M7.1 Sidney (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.1 Sidney (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.1 Sidney (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.1 Sidney (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M7.0 Georgia Strait (BC)
In 1997, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake occurred 3 to 4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia. This scenario visualizes the effects of that event if it had a magnitude of 7.0, and represents a strong ground shaking event that could strike Metro Vancouver.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M7.0 Georgia Strait (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.0 Georgia Strait (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.0 Georgia Strait (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.0 Georgia Strait (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M7.5 Val-des-Bois (QC)
In 2010 a magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred near Val-des-Bois, Quebec, and it produced the strongest shaking ever felt in Ottawa. Based on current science, the maximum possible size that an event like this could reach is about a magnitude of 7.5. This scenario visualizes the effects of that largest earthquake, and represents a very severe case for Ottawa.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M7.5 Val-des-Bois (QC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.5 Val-des-Bois (QC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.5 Val-des-Bois (QC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.5 Val-des-Bois (QC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M4.9 Georgia Strait (BC)
In 1997, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake occurred 3 to 4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, near Vancouver. This scenario visualizes the effects of that event if it occurred today with a magnitude of 4.9. A magnitude 7.0 Georgia Strait scenario is also provided, and represents a less likely but more consequential case for comparison.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M4.9 Georgia Strait (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M4.9 Georgia Strait (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M4.9 Georgia Strait (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M4.9 Georgia Strait (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M7.4 Denali Fault (YT)
The Denali Fault spans over 200km of the Yukon Territory, and is a significant source of seismic hazard. This magnitude 7.4 earthquake scenario, centered near small communities along the Alaska Highway, visualizes the effects of a severe earthquake that could be produced by this fault.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M7.4 Denali Fault (YT) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.4 Denali Fault (YT) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.4 Denali Fault (YT) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.4 Denali Fault (YT) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.0 Montréal (QC)
In September 1732 a damaging earthquake occurred immediately beneath the Island of Montréal. This scenario visualizes the effects of that event if it occurred today with a magnitude of 5.0, and represents a strong ground shaking event that could strike Montréal.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.0 Montréal (QC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Montréal (QC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Montréal (QC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Montréal (QC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.5 near Ottawa (ON)
Faults in the valleys near Ottawa could rupture and produce strong, shallow earthquakes. This magnitude 5.5 scenario visualizes the effects of such an event. It does not represent the most severe earthquake that could occur, but one that is more likely and could still cause damage.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.5 near Ottawa (ON) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.5 near Ottawa (ON) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.5 near Ottawa (ON) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.5 near Ottawa (ON) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.2 Vedder Fault (BC)
Magnitude 5.2 earthquake scenario along the Vedder Fault which runs northeast along Vedder Mountain. This earthquake is located about 18 km east of Abbotsford City Hall. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Abbotsford town centre.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.2 Vedder Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.2 Vedder Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.2 Vedder Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.2 Vedder Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.0 Mystery Lake (BC)
A magnitude 5 earthquake scenario along an unnamed fault located about 15 km north-northeast of Burnaby City Hall and directly south of Mt Elsay. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event in the North Shore Mountains.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.0 Mystery Lake (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Mystery Lake (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Mystery Lake (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Mystery Lake (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.7 Southey Point (BC)
Magnitude 5.7 earthquake scenario located directly southeast of Ladysmith Town Centre. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Ladysmith and Burleith Arm.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.7 Southey Point (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.7 Southey Point (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.7 Southey Point (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.7 Southey Point (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M4.9 Vedder Fault (BC)
Magnitude 4.9 earthquake scenario along the Vedder Fault which runs northeast along Vedder Mountain. This earthquake is located about 18 km east of Abbotsford City Hall. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Abbotsford town centre.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M4.9 Vedder Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M4.9 Vedder Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M4.9 Vedder Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M4.9 Vedder Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.9 Milles-ÎIes Fault (QC)
A magnitude 5.9 earthquake near Montreal, along the Milles-Îles Fault. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near the City of Montreal.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.9 Milles-ÎIes Fault (QC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.9 Milles-ÎIes Fault (QC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.9 Milles-ÎIes Fault (QC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.9 Milles-ÎIes Fault (QC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.6 Gloucester Fault (ON)
A magnitude 5.6 rupture scenario near Ottawa along the Gloucester Fault in the south of the city. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario is representative of seismicity in the Ottawa Valley.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.6 Gloucester Fault (ON) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.6 Gloucester Fault (ON) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.6 Gloucester Fault (ON) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.6 Gloucester Fault (ON) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.2 Beaufort Fault (BC)
The Beaufort fault in Eastern Vancouver Island is probably an active fault, near Courtenay/Comox/Cumberland. Based on current science, this fault may have ruptured in the 1946 magnitude 7.3 Vancouver Island Earthquake. This scenario represents a smaller magnitude 5.2 event.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.2 Beaufort Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.2 Beaufort Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.2 Beaufort Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.2 Beaufort Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M7.7 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC)
In 1949 a magnitude 8.1 earthquake occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault, off the west coast of the Haida Gwaii archipelago. This magnitude 7.7 scenario along the Queen Charlotte Fault is slightly different and closer to population centres than the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that occurred in 2012.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M7.7 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.7 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.7 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M7.7 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.0 Georgia Strait Fault (BC)
In 1997, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake occurred 3 to 4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, near Vancouver. This scenario visualizes the effects of that event if it occurred today with a magnitude of 5.0. A magnitude 7.0 Georgia Strait scenario is also provided, and represents a less likely but more consequential case for comparison.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.0 Georgia Strait Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Georgia Strait Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Georgia Strait Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Georgia Strait Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M8.0 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC)
In 1949 a magnitude 8.1 earthquake occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault, off the west coast of the Haida Gwaii archipelago. This magnitude 8.0 scenario along the Queen Charlotte Fault is slightly different and closer to population centres than the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that occurred in 2012.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M8.0 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M8.0 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M8.0 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M8.0 Queen Charlotte Fault (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.0 Burlington Toronto Structural Zone (ON)
This is a magnitude 5.0 earthquake scenario along the Burlington Toronto Structural Zone — a fault near Toronto and its surrounding region. This fault is not known to be active but demonstrates a plausible earthquake scenario for the Toronto region.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.0 Burlington Toronto Structural Zone (ON) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Burlington Toronto Structural Zone (ON) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Burlington Toronto Structural Zone (ON) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Burlington Toronto Structural Zone (ON) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.0 Rouge Beach (ON)
This is a magnitude 5.0 earthquake scenario under Lake Ontario, very close to Toronto. This fault is not known to be active but demonstrates a plausible earthquake scenario for Toronto region.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.0 Rouge Beach (ON) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Rouge Beach (ON) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Rouge Beach (ON) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.0 Rouge Beach (ON) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
M5.5 Southey Point (BC)
Magnitude 5.0 earthquake scenario located directly southeast of Ladysmith Town Centre. This fault is not known to be active, but this scenario represents a small but damaging event near Ladysmith and Burleith Arm.
| Resource Name | Format | Links | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub repository | Document | HTML | Access |
| M5.5 Southey Point (BC) (Aggregated Buildings) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.5 Southey Point (BC) (Census Subdivision) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.5 Southey Point (BC) (Settlement Area) | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| M5.5 Southey Point (BC) ShakeMap | Dataset | GPKG | Access |
| Data dictionary | Document | EXCEL | Access |
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